If The Spirit's Willing, It Must Be Royal Challenge

This blog is a loose assembly of some of the posts I had contributed to RCB website with the username "Observer" during IPL2. The posts were mainly about a "predictive analytical model" I had developed to forecast the semifinalists of IPL2 from Match 29 onwards. Unfortunately the posts have now been removed due to a revamp of RCB website. I have tried to recreate some of the posts based on my model "just to give a flavor of what it was all about". You may see more in IPL3.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

IPL2 - Highlights of Fan Club Posts by Raghu (Observer)

With the user name "Observer", I had the pleasure of posting a number of messages during IPL2. These messages were intended to share my views with fellow RCB fans, give vent to my joy and frustrations about each match, have fun, make friends, and maybe give some food for thought to the RCB management too, if it could be of any value.

Some of the appealing topics on which I initiated or responded include the following:

1. Msg for RCB Management
2. KP Captaincy
3. The Meeting Place
4. A Glorious Compliment to Anil Kumble
5. Target: Champs League Twenty Twenty
6. Emotional Quotient
7. Let The Affair Blossom
8. Uthappa
9. Once Upon A Time He Was A Matchwinner
10. It's been coming back
11. Did Dhoni Get It Wrong
12. Acid Test for Kumble
13. Why Blame Uthappa
14. A Dull Day Today A RCB World
15. A Reason To Party
16. Why Passionate About RCB
17. The Sword of Tipu Sultan
18. What's In A Name
19. Support RCB Emailer
20. What Brings Us Together
21. No Slips Please ... We're RCB
22. Rating Kumble's Captaincy
23. As Amitabh Bachhan Says ....
24. 4 Stages of Team Development
25. The Uthappa Dilemma
26. My Gut Feel & Why
27. 7 Keys for Today's Success
28. Many many posts under "Impact of Today's Match on RCB's Chances"

I request the RCB management to restore all these posts on the RCB website at least till IPL3 commences. Many of these are inspirational, thought provoking and will boost fan sentiment and passion towards RCB

Saturday, September 26, 2009

IPL2 - RCB Fan Club - After Match 49: 2 More To Go For RCB

Hi buddies,

Many possibilities still exist at the end of match 49 and the situation. Todays match betwen CSK and KKR is important for CSK but will not make much difference for other teams in terms of making it to semis. If CSK loses, it will benefit RR.

If CSK beats KKR: (CSK makes it)

a) and RCB wins both:
RCB - 100%, KXI - 78%, RR - 22%, DC- 34%
b) RCB beats DD, loses to DC:
RCB - 31%, KXI - 81%, RR - 19%, DC- 100%
c) RCB loses to DD, beats DC:
RCB - 78%, KXI - 100%, RR - 56%, DC - 78%

If CSK loses to KKR:

a) RCB wins both:
RCB - 100%, KXI - 81%, RR - 59%, CSK - 100%(incl shared), DC - 16%
b) RCB beats DD loses to DC:
RCB - 22%, KXI - 75%, RR - 47%, CSK - 100%(incl shared), DC - 100%
c) RCB loses to DD, beats DC
RCB - 72%, KXI - 100%, R - 56%, CSK - 100%(incl shared), DC - 72%

100% includes shared 4th positions

Lets keep the fingers crossed and hope for the best from and for RCB

Cheers

Raghu

IPL2 - RCB Fan Club - Match 45: A Thriller That Was

Hi

This was a fantastic match. Perhaps the best in the history of IPL both in terms of excitement and importance. The loss has put MI in the unenviable position of 2 'must win' situations - against CSK and DD. So Match 47 - CSK vs MI assumes significance for both teams. If MI lose they are out. If CSK loses, they will enter the danger zone after today's loss against RCB.

Shane Warne's body language, marshalling of his team, the field placements and the super stroke of reserving Munaf Patel for the last did it all. The way these golden oldies have contributed in IPL2, I would not be surprised if this edition can be called as the 'Golden Revival of Veterans'. Which is logical too - for these players can perform best in the shortest versions - they have experience and need to have stamina for a comparatively short duration.

Cheers

Raghu

IPL2 - RCB Fan Club - Match 44: 7 Keys To Success and How RCB Did It

Hi

Before the match I had posted the following Keys to Success as a prerequisite for winning crucial matches:




1. Every player should bring tons and tons of optimism and confidence throughout the match

2. Tremendous camaraderie amongst the players

3. One spectacular batting performance

4. One spectacular bowling performance

5. 2 spectacular catches

6. 1 masterstroke by Kumble in batting order

7. 1 masterstroke by Kumble in bowling changes




Let's take stock of what actually happened:

1. OPTIMISM & CONFIDENCE: YES THEY HAD IT (COMPARE WITH DD vs DC YESTERDAY)

2. CAMARADERIE: YES

3. 1 SPECTACULAR BATTING: NO BUT MADE UP BY TAYLOR-KOHLI PARTNERSHIP

4. 1 SPECTACULAR BOWLING: KUMBLE, KALLIS FIGURES LOOK GREAT

5. 2 SPECTACULAR CATCHES: MERWE AND VINAY

6. 1 masterstroke by Kumble in batting order: NO! UTHAPPA SHOULD HENCEFORTH COME AT 6 OR LATER IF IN TEAM

7. 1 MASTERSTROKE IN BOWLING CHANGES: NOT SURE BUT BOWLING CHANGES WERE EFFECTIVE BY AND LARGE


CONGRATS KUMBLE FOR A GREAT SHOW

cheers

Raghu

IPL2 - RCB Fan Club - After Match 38: 4 Matches to Go, No Slips Left

I was a bit impulsive when I said in my previous post I will stop my analysis. This was a knee jerk reaction out of the disappointment of losing to MI. But have got back to my habits and my credo: The battle was lost but the war is still on OR A Champisonship Is Not Won Till It Is Lost.

Here is my analysis, assuming RCB wins the remaining 4 matches:

1. KKR's chances of making to semis is 0%
2. RCB has 60% chance of making it
3. MI's chances is 31%
4. KXI's chances is 40%
5. RR has a 61% chance
6. CSK - 90%
7. DC - 53%
8. DD - 100%

I guess there is still some room for hope ... but Kumble will have to invent new strategies to win 4 in a row.

Every match offers only 1 door for RCB - Door To Win

If Kumble wants to consult on his strategies with me, I'm available!! :)

Cheers

Raghu

IPL2 - RCB Fan Club - Impact of Match 38 on RCB's Chances

Here is the impact of Match 38 (RCB vs MI) on RCB's chances of making it to

semis:

In a nutshell, if MI wins:

1. No impact on KKR - it will not make it anyway
2. RCB's chances of making it to semis slips to 22%
3. MI will improve to 34%
4. KXI will have a chance of 56%
5. RR will move to 70%
6. DC will improve to 68%
7. CSK will be at a comfortable 94%
8. DD will be at 93%

On the other hand, if RCB wins:

1. No impact on KKR - it will not make it anyway
2. RCB's chances of making it to semis improves to 55%
3. MI will slip to a dangerous 8%
4. KXI will move marginally to 54%
5. RR will have minimal impact and will be at 68%
6. DC will be at 66%
7. CSK will continue to be comfortable at 93%
8. DD will continue to top at 95%

Gives an idea to all how important this match is for RCB

Cheers

Raghu

IPL2 - RCB Fan Club - Impact of Match 36 on RCB's Chances

Given below is an analysis I had posted during IPL2 on the Royal Challengers website. I had started this kind of analysis around Match 29 ... unfortunately RCB management has removed all old posts from their website which seems to have undergone a major transformation recently.

----------EXTRACT FROM MY POST ON RCB WEBSITE ON 9th MAY 09-------------

Here is the impact of Match 36 on the teams on their chances of making it to semis:

If DC wins:
1. KKR moves to 1%
2. RCB up from 31% to 34%
3. MI up from 15% to 21%
4. KXI down from 43% to 16%
5. RR up from 80% to 84%
6. CSK down from 87% to 84%
7. DC zooms from 82% to 92%
8. DD up from 90% to 93%

If KXI wins:

1. KKR moves to 2%
2. RCB up from 31% to 34%
3. MI up from 15% to 22%
4. KXI down from 43% to 51%
5. RR up from 80% to 86%
6. CSK down from 87% to 80%
7. DC slips from 82% to 66%
8. DD up from 93% to 96%

I wish RCB site had allowed images ... I could have brought life to these numbers with a ppt show!

Cheers

Raghu

Thanks to all of you for your compliments, feedback and insights.
Keeps my adrenaline flowing despite RCB's losses. Notwithstanding
the fact that my wife and daughters are keeping a close tab on the number of girl friends I may add through my insights!